This Week’s Institutional Positioning Report — Free Download
The full PDF from the CoT Accumulation System.
I want to show you something. Attached below is this week’s TFF CoT Intelligence Report (09052026), straight from the system I introduced in my last article, created with Claude using free government data.
(Just put $0 to download. It’s a Gumroad thing…)
Download it, read it, and decide for yourself whether this kind of directional context would change how you think about the pairs you’re watching this week. Here’s how I use it.
What This Report Actually Is
The report shows which way institutional money is leaning on major currency pairs. It doesn’t tell me exactly when to trade, but signals broad direction.
It’s like a weather forecast before a sailing trip. You choose the journey, but knowing the forecast will shape your decisions.
Each pair is rated: accumulating (institutions buying), distributing (selling), trend running (move underway), or neutral (no signal).
I use this as a filter on top of whatever chart analysis I’m doing. If the report says WAIT and my chart shows a buy signal, I wait. If the report says LONG and my chart confirms, I start looking for setups. How aggressively you act on these depends on your own trading rules and risk management strategy. The report just tells you which direction the wind is blowing.
What This Week’s Report Is Telling Me
This week’s data reflects positions as of Tuesday, 5 May.
The pair I’m watching most closely: JPY/USD
This is the most interesting setup in this week’s report. Asset Managers have been reducing their JPY positions for weeks, and this week, for the first time, that trend appears to be reversing. The first positive weekly change. It’s a small but unconfirmed signal, and the system says “watch but don’t act yet.”
What makes it interesting is the other players. Leveraged Funds are already elevated at 68 and well-positioned for the move ahead of the confirmation.
Dealers have a clean book, which means if the move does begin, it’s more likely to begin with a straightforward breakout than a messy stop-hunt first.
Three of the five conditions for a Prime Entry signal are already in place. The remaining two, a sustained negative streak and a higher AM reading, haven’t fired yet. It may not. So I’m just watching closely for now.
The pairs I’d be exiting: AUD/USD and DXY
Both are flashing Crowding Warning. Asset Managers are at near-maximum optimism on both pairs; 97th percentile for AUD, 87th for DXY. These aren’t entry opportunities. If you’re long either of these, the system is telling you to start thinking about the exit, not adding to the position.
AUD/USD has been crowded for weeks. The Dealer book is at zero, so they expect a sharp decline. This doesn’t mean it falls tomorrow, but holding AUD/USD is now much riskier.
The pair worth paying attention to: GBP/USD
GBP is giving an unusual reading this week, and I want to flag it.
Asset Managers are at the 13th percentile over the past 52 weeks, indicating pessimism toward GBP. The spring is compressed, so a long setup may be building up. For the 26-week lookback, they’re at the 96th percentile. That’s a whopping 76-point gap between readings.
Something significant has been happening in GBP positioning over the past six months that hasn’t yet shown up in the one-year time frame. The massive weekly swing of over 120,000 contracts confirms that this is not a quiet, orderly accumulation. Something big and volatile is happening in this market.
The system says to wait for confirmation, and I agree. But if you’re the type of trader who reads volatility as opportunity rather than risk, GBP is worth watching closely this week. You either lean in or stay out, depending on your risk profile. But don’t say you weren’t warned either way.
The pairs are trending quietly: CAD/USD and CHF/USD
Both are in a Trend Running phase, mid-cycle, adding steadily. No drama, no urgency. If you have positions, the system says hold and monitor.
EUR/USD: the number that made me look twice
EUR/USD is classified as a Setup Watch. The spring is compressed at the 22nd percentile. Technically, we are looking for a long setup building. That part is straightforward.
But here’s the unusual bit. A single-week swing of -315,109 contracts. That is an enormous institutional move in one week, and it points in the wrong direction for anyone hoping this is a quiet accumulation in progress.
Whether that’s a one-week anomaly or the start of something big, we won’t know until next Friday’s data. What it tells me is that EUR/USD is not a pair I would want to be entering this week, regardless of what my charts say. The system says to wait and see.
NZD/USD: nothing to see here
Neutral. No clear signal. The system says no trade. The key takeaway is to take no action at this time.
How to Read the Report
The report is attached. Here’s a quick guide to reading the summary table on page one:
AM 52w/26w/156w: Asset Manager percentile by window. Below 25: compressed (possible long). Above 75: crowded (possible exit).
WoW: week-on-week contract change. Positive means added; negative means reduced.
WoW Strk: consecutive weeks in one direction. Long streaks are more significant.
Phase is the system’s classification. This is the one-word verdict:
SETUP WATCH means wait and see. The spring is compressed but hasn’t turned. No entry permitted.
SETUP WATCH TURNING means the first sign of a turn. AM WoW has flipped positive, but it needs confirmation. Still no entry.
PRIME ENTRY means all five conditions have aligned simultaneously. This is the rarest and highest-conviction signal. Look for a sweep entry on the daily chart. Historically correct 88% of the time within 52 weeks.
EARLY ENTRY means the turn is confirmed. AM has risen through 40 from the watch zone with two or more consecutive positive weeks. Look out for a sweep entry on the daily chart. Full sizing available.
TREND RUNNING: Hold position or enter carefully. The cycle is mid-range and intact. New entries are pullback-only at reduced size (30%).
CROWDING WARNING means prepare to exit. AM is at 78 or above. Do not add. Take profit if holding.
DISTRIBUTION means exit. AM is at an extreme with two or more consecutive negative weeks. The cycle is ending.
NEUTRAL means no signal. Nothing to do.
A final word on what these numbers mean
As I said in the article, the system is a directional indicator, not a crystal ball.
When all five Prime Entry criteria align, historical directional accuracy is 88% (17 signals since 2006). This is rare, and happens only about once every 14 months per pair.
Setup Watch, Trend Running, and Crowding Warning shows where you are in the cycle, but not the exact timing to get in or out. A warning can last for weeks before the turn. Setup Watch can compress further and longer than expected.
The system offers context and probabilities, not certainty. It helps tilt the odds but doesn’t remove risk.
Use it as a filter. If the report says LONG but your analysis says SHORT, stick to your risk management. If the report says EXIT and you’re tempted to hold, respect the signal.
The market doesn’t care what any system says. Manage your risk accordingly.
If You Want to Run This Yourself
This report took 30 seconds to generate. I downloaded a CSV from CFTC, uploaded it and the script to Claude, and ran the pipeline.
The complete system, including the documentation explaining the methodology, the pipeline script, the interactive dashboard, and sample data, is available here:
The CoT Accumulation System → sittingpony.gumroad.com/l/CoT
Start with the free report here. If it is useful, consider the full system. If not, no worries.
The CoT Accumulation System is part of AI & Markets, a series on The Intelligent Playbook exploring what happens when you bring domain knowledge and the right questions to AI.
This report is for research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Trading currencies involves significant risk of loss. Be careful.